Thomas J. Brailey

PhD Candidate (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)

thomas.brailey@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Welcome! I am a PhD researcher in Politics at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. I study the provision of security by state and non-state actors in Sub-Saharan Africa. My dissertation probes under what circumstances states accept, co-opt, or suppress non-state security providers. My research interests broadly include the political economy of development, political violence, and research transparency and reproducibility.

Between September and December 2026, I will be a visiting scholar at New York University.

I received my MPhil in Comparative Government (with distinction) from the University of Oxford in 2024. I received a Bachelor of Science in political science and data analytics (summa cum laude) from UC San Diego in 2020.

I hold ongoing research appointments at the University of Oxford and the LSE. In 2026, I was a data intern at the International Organization for Migration’s Kenya office. From 2020 to 2022, I served as a pre-doctoral fellow with J-PAL’s Payments and Governance Research Program. I have also served as a research assistant for the Center for the Study of African Political Economy and as a lab assistant for the Center for Peace and Security Studies.

Security Provision

Conceptualizing Private Military and Security Companies (2026). Conflict Management and Peace Science.
Rethinking Public Goods Provision: State and Non-State Security Provision in Displacement Settings (2026). With Pilar Sanchez-Bellosta. Under review.
Policed to Distrust: Colonial Coercion and Contemporary Attitudes toward State Security (2026).
The Centralization of Security and Citizen Safety: Evidence from Mozambique (2026).
Chiefs and Security Provision in Malawi (2026). With Alexander Yeandle. [Pre-Analysis Plan]
How the State Legitimizes Non-State Security Provision (2024).

Politics of Sub-Saharan Africa

Coups and Social Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Burkina Faso (2026). With Robin Harding and Thomas Isbell. R&R at World Politics.

Meta-Science

Reproducibility and Robustness of Economics and Political Science Research (2026). With Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, et al. (5th author by contribution). Nature.
Mass Reproducibility in Psychological Science (2026). With Abel Brodeur, Ghina Abdul Baki, Luna Fazio, et al. I4R Working Paper.
Tracing Dataset Usage in Political Science (2026). [Pre-Analysis Plan]

I4R Replication Reports
- A Robustness Reproduction of Martel et al. (2024): “On the Efficacy of Accuracy Prompts Across Partisan Lines: An Adversarial Collaboration”. With Edmund Kelly and Benedetta Giocoli.
- Reproduction and Robustness of Kao et al. (2024): “Female Representation and Legitimacy”. A Report from the 2024 UC Berkeley Replication Games. With Edmund Kelly, Angela Odermatt, and Albert Ward.
- Why Do Citizens Tolerate Undemocratic Behaviour? A Comment on Frederiksen (2022). With Matthew Hepplewhite and Scott Moser.
- A Robustness Reproduction of Tappin, Berinsky and Rand (2023): “Partisans’ Receptivity to Persuasive Messaging is Undiminished by Countervailing Party Leader Cues”. With Edmund Kelly.

Other Publications

Dataset: Building a Comprehensive Database on Conflict: Ethiopia, 1997–2017 (2024).
BITSS Blog Post: Ensuring Reproducibility in Large Research Teams (2022).

Selected Works in Progress

Preliminary analysis (P) $\rightarrow$ Finalizing analysis (F) $\rightarrow$ Writing up the manuscript (W).

Technology Shocks Reshape the Geography of Human Activity: Global Evidence Since 1750 (with Neil Lee and Yohan Iddawela) [W].
Explaining the Emergence of Security Regimes [W].
Refugee Camp Onset, Development, and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa [W].
Security Responses to Gender-Based Violence in Conflict: Evidence from IDP Camps in Nigeria (with Pilar Sanchez-Bellosta) [F].